Power Plant Investment Analysis

KYOS has unique expertise in investment analysis for power plants. This expertise can be used for new-built power stations, acquisitions and/or divestments of energy assets and in valuating virtual power plants. Basis for this valuation expertise is that KYOS combines market dynamics, actual asset behaviour with standardized accounting principles in one overall approach.

Step 1. Fundamental Price Modelling

A fundamental electricity market model can be used for the construction of long term power prices. Based on commodity prices, the merit order, interconnection and demand forecasts, the expected power price is calculated.

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Step 2. Monte Carlo Price Simulations

Based on a (fundamental) price scenario, a set of different price simulations can be created. These Monte Carlo simulations reflect the price dynamics of the different commodities. The price dynamics can be estimated using historical price data series. Advanced econometrical concepts, including volatility, correlation, regime switches and cointegration, are applied to create realistic price simulations.

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Step 3. Power Plant Valuation

The value of all scenarios can be calculated with KyPlant, the power plant valuation model. All technical constraints are included (efficiency curves, capacity levels, min runtime, start curves, outages, availabilities, seasonal influences, etc.). The power plant is dispatched optimal, while all technical constraints are taken into account in the final operating decision.

The power plant software reports both the intrinsic value (value based on the fundamental curve) and the extrinsic value (flexibility value, which is calculated with the price simulations).

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Power Plant Valuation | Hourly Power Forward Curve (HPFC)  | Realistic Price Simulations | Power Plant Investment | Consulting Power Markets | Power Plant Training Courses | Publications Power Plant Valuation