Hourly Power Forward Curve

KyCurve produces a daily or hourly forward curve up to several years into the future for power and gas prices. It initially generates an hourly price forecast by optimally using market fundamentals and historical price patterns. Then, the forecast is rescaled to match currently available market prices.

Market prices are typically available for only a limited set of standardized products, such as base/peak and months/ quarters/seasons/years. However, several activities of an energy trading business require a higher level of detail with optimal accuracy for:

• Marking-to-market of current positions
• Pricing contracts with non-standard load profiles, in particular customer profiles
• Calculating internal transfer prices
• Portfolio planning and hedging
• Dispatching power plants
• Valuing gas storage and transportation  

Outputs hourly forward curve

The hourly forward curve model produces different types of price curves:

• Monthly forward curve using current forward prices and historical forward price relations, with different levels of smoothing
• Daily and hourly price forecasts based on set of explanatory variables and historical data
• Daily and hourly forward curves, combining forecast, smoothing and monthly market curve

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