Fundamental power price

Assess fundamental impacts to the power market

KyPowerFundamentals has been developed to assess long term electricity prices. KYOS actively uses it in consulting projects to assess the impact of new investments, regulatory changes and fuel price movements. With inputs on fuel prices, supply/demand balance and potential market developments, a forecast of future power prices is constructed. This allows energy market players and policy makers to assess risks and opportunities.

The open nature of this model, makes it relatively easy to implement customizations for answering very specific questions. Customizations can be implemented by the client or ourselves.  

Applications fundamental power price

• Assess how the power prices may evolve over time under various scenarios
• Assess regulatory or system changes
• Assess what volumes power plants are likely to produce
• Assist with investments and disinvestments
• Assess power plant generation value over multiple countries

Inputs fundamental curve building

KyPowerFundamentals takes as input the power market structure and various time-series:

• Individual power stations: production type, capacity, efficiency, availability, ramp rates, minimum up and down times, must-run constraints, etc
• Transmission capacities between countries
• Fuel, FX and CO2 prices
• Demand, wind and solar fluctuations

KyPowerFundamentals constructs detailed hourly dynamics of power production and transmission. It effectively uses merit orders and derives marginal prices for production and transmission per hour. Both cost-based and cost plus-based pricing methodologies can be applied.

KyPowerFundamentals covers a variety of generation technologies such as thermal power plants, nuclear, combined heat and power units and renewable energy technologies.

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