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Experts in energy modeling, consulting and training!

KYOS offers specialized advise on trading and risk management in energy markets. Our expert team has years of experience in quantitative modelling and advisory services in commodity markets. Our sophisticated solutions are developed to support decision making, investment proposals and risk calculations. KYOS has a clear focus on the following areas: Products, Consulting and Training.

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    KyCurve - Forward Curve Building

    KyCurve brochure

    KyCurve forward curve building software transforms tradable market prices in hourly power forward curves (HPFC) or daily gas prices. The software generates an hourly price forecast by optimally using historical price patterns. For power, this statistical optimization can also take into account a changing merit order due to the growth of solar and wind production. When the shaping factors have been found, they are applied to the currently available market forward prices. As a result, the price forward curve is arbitrage-free. 

    Market prices are typically available for only a limited set of standardized products, such as base/peak and months/ quarters/seasons/years. However, several activities of an energy trading business require a higher level of detail with optimal accuracy for:

    • Marking-to-market of current positions
    • Pricing contracts with non-standard load profiles, in particular customer profiles
    • Calculating internal transfer prices
    • Portfolio planning and hedging
    • Dispatching power plants
    • Valuing gas storage and transportation  

    Outputs hourly forward curve

    The hourly forward curve model produces different types of price curves:

    • Monthly forward curve using current forward prices and historical forward price relations, with different levels of smoothing
    • Daily and hourly price forecasts based on set of explanatory variables and historical data
    • Daily and hourly forward curves, combining forecast, smoothing and monthly market curve

    KyCurve software or Service

    KyCurve is a software module, which can be delivered:

    • As a stand-alone model with Excel interface
    • As a fully integrated software module in the KYOS Analytical Platform, including price database and web interface. All relevant prices are automatically collected, calculations started automatically, and forward curves pushed to the right applications. 
    • Delivered as a data service. Customers can get daily updates for forward curves of a number of power and gas markets. These are available on www.pricecurves.com (also as webservice) and on Montel Online.