Gas Storage and Swing Report – quarterly update

8 October 2021

Make the most of your gas storage!

Every quarter we publish an update of our Natural Gas Storage and Swing Report. It presents price assessments of a few standard storage and swing contracts, which you can benchmark to your own valuations. Above all, the report provides transparency to an otherwise opaque trading market, also revealing the underlying assumptions about market prices, market volatilities and trading strategies. Take advantage of our free service to you!

With our Natural Gas Storage and Swing report, we report about a few selected contracts. But of course we realize that you may have different needs! Our report compares the current quarter to the previous, but would you need data per month? Or do you need historical valuations? Or over a longer horizon? No problem, just contact us for more information.

We have in the past made customized reports for very different types of companies. For example, we provided data that was used in several arbitration cases between energy companies. Also companies used our analysis to facilitate their investment or divestment decisions.

Gas Storage and Swing Report – Market Comments Oct 2021

The unprecedented bull run of European gas continued during the third quarter of 2021. The TTF day ahead contract closed on 30 September at almost 82€/MWh! This was almost 250% higher than the day-ahead price at the start of the quarter. And even more telling, this was higher than the previous observed maximum at the TTF, which happed during the cold spell at the beginning of March 2018 when the actual supply/demand balance was very tight. The day-ahead closed during the “Beast-of-the-East” at 71€/MWh. This makes you wonder how high prices can go this winter when a similar peak event appears! And as we have seen already during the first few days of the fourth quarter, the market is still bullish – resulting so far in an intraday price for the TTF November 2021 contract of 160€/MWh on 6 October!

To read the complete report with graphs and tables, please click here: KYOS Gas Storage and Swing report Nr 32 Oct 2021

Methodology

All valuations have been performed with KYOS software and models, KyStore and KySwing. KyStore and KySwing support traders, portfolio and risk managers in natural gas markets. Inputs include market parameters, together with our own suggestions, forward curves and other parameters and settings. The model calculates the intrinsic value based on the forward curve and takes tradable products and bid/ask spreads into account. Our software uses Monte Carlo simulations of spot and forward prices to provide the rolling intrinsic and option values. Numerous companies in the energy industry already use our valuation software. You can find more information about our gas optimization software on our solutions page here.

More information

Would you like more information about the models and assumptions underlying this report, or request a demonstration of the KYOS software? Contact us for more information via the contact form in the black section below, or send us and e-mail: info@kyos.com.