In this report we analyze the German hourly power prices. In particular, we study the effect of renewable power production on the intra-day shapes. The forward curve builder of KYOS (KyCurve), has a special module to take the renewable production into account and creates a green HPFC (green price forward curve). Part of the model is a sensitivity estimation of how hourly power prices respond to changes in renewable production. Our analysis shows that this is an important component, even more so for longer term forward curves. Furthermore, we show that the sensitivity varies per hour and weekday.
This analysis report is a follow-up on the paper which describes the renewable regression approach as published in German in “Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen” and in English in “ZE Datawatch” (January 2013), with the English title “How renewables shape the future”.
This publication is based on the methodologies that are implemented in KyCurve software. For more information about KyCurve or a green price forward curve, click here.