Actual Power Plant Valuations in Europe – monthly update

8 June 2017

Overview of actual Power Plant Valuations

Every month KYOS will provide you with a comparison of the European power market. We have selected the three major markets: United Kingdom, France and Germany. The reports shows the market trend of spark and dark spreads and an assessment of the profitability of coal and gas fired generation. The analysis reveals both the realized and expected values for the market, assuming a coal plant efficiency of 46% and gas of 60%.

Monthly Power Plant and Option Reports

Please find below the corresponding links to the Power reports:

Power report #5 June 2017

Power report #4 May 2017

Power report #3 April 2017

Power report #2 March 2017

Power report #1 February 2017

All valuations have been performed with KYOS software and models, KyPlant and KySim. Simulation values are the average across a large number of Monte Carlo price simulations and using the least-squares Monte Carlo methodology to derive the optimal dispatch (exercise) of the products.

What’s the value of your Power Plant?

How does these actual power plant valuations translate to your own situation? You can use these figures to benchmark the intrinsic and extrinsic value of your own plant. How does your plant compare? Please contact us if you would like our help in getting data for your market and plant situation.

Optimize your Power Plant Dispatch

Use the KyPlant model to optimize your plant production by calculating your optimal dispatch – on short term and longer horizon. Make daily production decisions for the spot market. For forward markets, let the KyPlant model show you the optimal intrinsic hedging and delta hedging strategies. Especially for summer months with low intrinsic values, active delta hedging is required to capture the most of the extrinsic value.

Extrinsic values are derived from an intuitive and realistic Monte Carlo simulation model. A combination of forward and spot trading strategies is applied to the simulated price scenarios, using dynamic programming and least-squares Monte Carlo. This type of valuation provides a fair assessment of the future value. Backtesting of the model is another feature: it shows how much money you would have made in the past, following a specific trading strategy.

KYOS valuation software is widely used in the energy industry. You can find more information about our power plant valuation software on our solutions page. Contact us for more information about the models and assumptions underlying this report, or to request a demonstration of the KYOS software via the form below or e-mail us: info@kyos.com. Please let us know what you think about this report – we do hope you find it useful! Are you missing information? Or do you have other suggestions? We look forward to hearing from you!

 

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E-mail: info@kyos.com
Tel: +31 (0)23 551 02 21

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