Last week KYOS was present at the EMART 2017 Conference in Amsterdam. The conference attracted over 500 participants and featured some interesting debates about the challenges of the energy sector. Cyriel de Jong from KYOS held a presentation in the session on Power Price Drivers: “How can conventional generation survive in Europe?”
He showed how fundamental models help to forecast future power prices and power plant profitability. He used the KYOS’ KyPF model first to showcase how reduced French nuclear plant availability affects Western-European power prices. This is a hot topic, because ongoing uncertainty about inspections at several French nuclear plants has caused a rally in French power prices. And not only in France, but across Europe.
Cyriel shared his view that the price response of Germany is probably too large, because of limited export capacities of Germany to France. In another example, Cyriel analyzed different CO2 price scenarios. He showed that CO2 price levels of 20 or 30 Euro per ton above current levels will lead to a strong shift away from old coal and lignite stations. Both efficient coal plants and gas plants will benefit, and carbon emission levels in Germany will drop sharply.
KyPF is KYOS’ fundamental model when you need power price projections over a longer horizon. KyPF has the unique feature of integrating Monte Carlo simulations into fundamental power market modelling. This provides a much broader perspective on potential future developments than in the traditional deterministic fundamental market models. Ideal for owners of conventional power plants.!
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